Fox News Power Rankings: Storm clouds gather for Democrats in the Northeast

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look expectations More depressing for Democrats With Election Day approaching, with a string of recent polls suggesting that even the current New York governor is in some danger. In this version of the Fox News Power Rankings, five races turn Northeast toward the Republicans, and signs of potential annoyance appear in Oklahoma’s governor’s race.

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The 2022 Democratic Forces Rankings: The Republican Party’s Projected Advantage in the House of Representatives.
(Fox News)

Republicans are set now to take 16The majority of seats in the House of Representatives total 233, while the Democrats will get the remaining 202 seats. This is one increase for the Republican Party since last week. This forecast has a margin of error of about 17 seats, which means that Democrats or Republicans could win about 17 seats more or less than the numbers in the estimate above.

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Best case scenarios for both parties on Election Day.

Best case scenarios for both parties on Election Day.
(Fox News)

The “best case” chart now shows how the margin of error can occur for either party. Great Night for the Democrats that will keep the party in power with 219 seats; A two-seat majority is tiny, but enough to keep the Republican Party out of power. The perfect night for the Republicans would have given them a majority of 32 seats, or 249 seats.

This increase for the Republican Party comes at a time when the party is making gains national suffrage. Two weeks later in October, a Fox News poll showed Republicans leading in the general suffrage among voters who said they felt “sure to vote” in the midterm elections. Now, the multiple polls that separate out their results among “probable” or “probable” voters show a small advantage for the Republican Party. It comes at a time when millions of Americans are already voting. With the exception of a late October surprise, it is hard to see how the race for control of Congress might change direction.

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Senate election forecasts suggest that the Republican Party has a slight advantage.

Senate election forecasts suggest that the Republican Party has a slight advantage.
(Fox News)

There are no changes to the Senate’s forecast. Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania are still the throwaway races, with Runoff in Georgia Among Democrats, Senator Raphael Warnock, and Republican contender Herschel Walker looks more likely as Election Day approaches.

NEW YORK: Gov. Cathy Hochhol faces a struggle in her political life, and is helping GOP candidates across the state

Kathy Hochhol is the current governor of New York, but she was never elected to this position. The former lieutenant governor came to power in August 2021, replacing plagued by scandal Former Governor Andrew Cuomo, has struggled to find a foothold. On the other hand, Hochul forged better relationships with the state legislature and local governments (although Cuomo and former New York City mayor Bill de Blasio identified bar too low). On the other hand, Hochul A . presided over A set of strict COVID-19 regulations In the depths of the epidemic, she also had to replace her deputy governor after he was her first choice Arrested for bribery.

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Predictions for governor elections across the country.

Predictions for governor elections across the country.
(Fox News)

Crime is the most important issue in this race, though not close. In a statewide Quinnipiac poll released last week, 28% of potential voters said crime is the most pressing issue facing New York, with inflation ranking second at 20%. Independents also put it first by a margin of 10 points. Even among Hochhol’s base, crime ranked second in importance, with 18% of Democrats describing it as their most pressing concern. Overall, the survey showed Hochul’s support at 50%, just four points behind her opponent. suffrage Shows constantly This crime is a case in favor of Republicans in this district, so Hochul is in some danger.

Republican challenger Rep. Lee Zelden made crime a cornerstone of his campaign, Tell “Fox & Friends” He would cancel non-cash bail and fire county attorneys who, he said, refused to enforce the law, among other criminal justice reforms. For her part, Hochul appeared alongside New York City Mayor Eric Adams last weekend to announce the 1200 extra shifts per day for police officers to patrol the city’s transit system, along with other strategies they said would reduce crime in America’s largest populated city.

Hochul has seen some significant advantages. The voters of the inner city and suburbs strongly favored the Democrats, and there are likely enough of them in the Empire State to beat the red districts in the North. Zeldin votes to annul the 2020 election results, and endorsement from the former President Trump, Which had an unfavorable 60% score in the same Quinnipiac poll, would also limit its appeal in the general election. Hochul still has the upper hand in this race, but she is definitely competitive. New York goes from Solid D to Likely D.

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33 seats remain neglected in the race for the House of Representatives.

33 seats remain neglected in the race for the House of Representatives.
(Fox News)

Weak nomination at the state level has implications for house races, This is one of the many factors driving shifts toward Republicans in three New York counties.

We started upstate in New York’s 22nd District, where Rep. John Katko’s retirement forced an open race between two Navy veterans, Democrat Francis Conol and Republican Brandon Williams. This region contains Syracuse and Rome, as well as a variety of outer suburbs and rural areas, making it a fiercely competitive area of ​​the state. Both candidates are running vigorous campaigns, with Connoll portraying himself as a moderate in economics and energy independence in line with Senator Joe Manchin, Deutsche Viva, and Williams telling voters about his experience running a software company to convince them he would understand. their economic concerns. The latest poll from Sienna Williams gave a five-point lead in the race (45% to 40%), and Hochul’s weakness at the top of the ticket showed the most significant impact in the northern regions. Finally, while Williams has supported repealing some abortion rights, the issue is unlikely to play a central role in the campaign, and Williams said he does not support a national ban. This race has remained very competitive, but District 22 in New York is going from Toss-Up to Lean R.

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Fox News Power ratings for this year's major house races.

Fox News Power ratings for this year’s major house races.
(Fox News)

Moving on to the Hudson Valley, the 17th District is home to one of the most powerful Democrats in Congress. Sean Patrick Maloney Representing parts of the district since 2013, he currently chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the organization directly responsible for keeping Democrats in power. Maloney is one of the well-known brokers and he went into this race as the frontrunner, but he’s a contender Mike Lawler He ran a vigorous campaign focused on inflation and crime. He also kept his distance from the “MAGA” movement in these suburbs, which voted for President Biden in 2020. Maloney is the only “incumbent”, but most of the land is new to him after redistricting. Major GOP groups pumped millions of dollars into the race and both parties believe the competition is high. Neither side has an overall advantage, so this race goes from Lean D to Toss-Up.

Finally, there are two other races shifting toward the Republicans in the Northeast, although both are still in the Democrats’ column. First, New York’s Fourth District, which is one of several in the Long Island area. Here, former Hempstead superintendent Laura Gillin, Democrat, will face off against Republican local council member Anthony D’Esposito, former NYPD detective and fire chief. The latter is Strongly inclined to crime on the roadAnd since New York voters prioritized it over all other issues, this race became even more competitive. Gillen talks about the rights of schools and workers, and has also turned to abortion, taking advantage of confusing remarks her opponent has made about supporting a national ban. This race goes from Likely D to Lean D.

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The 2022 Democratic Forces Rankings show the expectations of Republicans with an advantage in the House of Representatives.

The 2022 Democratic Forces Rankings show the expectations of Republicans with an advantage in the House of Representatives.
(Fox News)

In the Garden State, current Democrat and former National Security Adviser Andy Kim is fighting to stay in the Third Congressional District. Under new lines, that central New Jersey seat would have voted for Biden in double digits in 2020. The threat comes from Bob Healy, Jr., who serves as the chairman of a local real estate and yacht builder. He has benefited from large sums of outside spending in the race, with more than $650,000 in support of him and another $2.1 million opposing Kim so far. Much of the money has come from Garden State Advance, a Super PAC that has received significant contributions from Healey’s Mother. New Jersey proves it No bastion of liberals In the 2021 gubernatorial race, the two candidates are battling hard for every vote. This race goes from Likely D to Lean D.

Oklahoma: Democrats find opening in governor race as domestic issues take the stage

Joy Hofmeister has been Oklahoma’s Superintendent of Public Education since 2015. She was also a Republican for most of that time, but last year, she announced that she would turn to the Democrats to run against the incumbent governor. Kevin Stitt. What many observers wrote as campaign dead on arrival has since become a bright spot for Democrats.

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Fox News Power Rankings indicate how some states might vote for governor.

Fox News Power Rankings indicate how some states might vote for governor.
(Fox News)

Hofmeister is an effective interlocutor and has largely distinguished herself from the patriotic figures in her party, who are not very popular in this ruby-red country. However, its polls’ momentum can likely be attributed to State’s animosity with Native American tribes. Early in his first term, State attempted to renegotiate gambling agreements with the tribes, who rejected the proposals and have since been seen as his worst nightmare. While they traditionally eschew endorsements, five major tribes threw their weight behind Hofmeister at a press conference this month.

Stitt has remained the favorite, thanks to a dominant Republican base and a $4 million fundraising advantage—but this race is competitive. Oklahoma switches from Solid R to Likely R.

Two weeks left until election day

The countdown continues until Election Day, but voters have already had their say. More than 5 million Americans have cast their votes by mail or in person so far. turnout Exceeded all expectations in Georgia, but looks weak in Nevada, both of which are critical swing states as we head toward the final stage. Our reporters travel with campaigns and speak to voters in each of those states and across the country as the 2022 democracy continues. Tune in to Fox News and come back here next Tuesday for predictions on the final power ratings.

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