GOP tsunami is sweeping away Democrat hopes for midterm elections


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The Looks like the republican tsunami is moving In every part of the country – from Oregon and Washington to Rhode Island.

This is what happens When big wave elections happen. It penetrates everywhere. Races that seem hopeless suddenly become hopeless. Races that seem suddenly optimistic are clearly winnable.

I I watched the democrats tsunami In 1958, 1974 and 2006. I also saw the Republican tsunami in 1980, 1994 and 2010.

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There are regular patterns that start building after Labor Day. When people start thinking about voting, their calculations change. This year is no different. The 401(k) statements made at the beginning of October will reinforce and intensify discontent with President Joe Biden and Democrats. These sentiments will build a larger Republican wave.

President Joe Biden and his fellow Democrats are trying to block the Republican Party’s landslide victories in the midterm elections.
(Photo by Associated Press/ Damien Devarganis)

Races that should be locks for Democrats are suddenly becoming competitive.

I recently received an email from Barry Castleman, an old friend and longtime election analyst who writes a regular newsletter on politics. On Saturday, Lee wrote, “Now Connecticut?” He explained that a new poll found that Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal was only five points ahead of Republican contender Leora Levy (49% to 44%). Two weeks ago, a poll showed it was over 50% and ahead by 13 points. Castleman simply asked, “Can you play CT?”

I’ve reviewed people who know Connecticut politics much better than I do, and the answer has been surprisingly positive.

This is the year when any Democrat under 50 is at risk. In addition to Levy on the Connecticut ticket, Republican Governor Bob Stefanovsky now trails Governor Ned Lamont by just six points (40% to 46%), according to a Connecticut Examiner poll.

Most importantly, the survey was conducted prior to the brutal murder of two police officers in Bristol, Connecticut. Police refused to allow Lamont to speak at a memorial service for the officers, because Lamont signed a law during the Black Lives Matters protests that restricted law enforcement and allowed criminals to be released.

Crime and inflation seem to move Connecticut voters while they move voters across the country. And for Connecticut, being in New York City’s TV coverage area is having an impact. Watching coverage of the ongoing massacre in New York increases the impact of crime on Connecticut politics.

In this crisis environment, Blumenthal is hurt by his 37 years in office. Like Democrat Patty Murray in Washington state, he has nothing to show for more than six terms in the US Senate. People look for action, not excuses.

Tiffany Smiley, the Republican candidate for the US Senate in Washington state, gives an interview in Washington, D.C., on Monday, September 20, 2021.

Tiffany Smiley, the Republican candidate for the US Senate in Washington state, gives an interview in Washington, D.C., on Monday, September 20, 2021.
(Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Nearly two-thirds of Connecticut residents say the country is on the wrong track (65%). By 48% to 43%, voters also reported wanting to elect a Republican focused on lowering prices rather than a Democrat who would keep abortion legal. The direct ballot between Levy and Blumenthal is a single-digit race despite Blumenthal’s massive spending advantage against a first-time candidate. Only 42% of Connecticuts believe the incumbent has secured another term. Fifty-two percent want to give someone else a chance.

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All this in a situation where there is no traditional early in-person voting and strict rules for absentee balloting. It will be set on Election Day – high turnout is expected.

All of this makes Connecticut a potentially great picking point for Republicans. Meanwhile, Tiffany sees Smiley running a big campaign in Washington State. You see that Herschel Walker outperforms his rivals in Georgia. It sees former Democrat Tulsi Gabbard campaigning with retired Republican General Donald Bolduc for a New Hampshire Senate seat.


There is a tide coming. What we don’t know is how big this tide will be and how decisive it will be.

If the tsunami was big enough, even well-funded Democrats who thought they were safe could suddenly have trouble.

When people start making decisions based on their own lives – and their pocketbooks – all the ads in the world simply don’t work.


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